Post by Loftyz47 on Jun 27, 2019 3:46:08 GMT
This is a quick guide for using hypergeometric calculators. If you are using a resist set, this won't be so helpful for you. But if you are using triple null set (Genius + Dragon Mail + Epaulette/Ensis), this calculator can show you the probabilities of your procs, including the chance of AT LEAST 1 proc occurring.
Most autoskill gears have a base "proc rate" built into them, which functions the same as autoskill+%. I don't know if these 3 gears have that, so any base proc rate isn't included in the maths below.
Each individual Autoskill proc is dictated by RNG. Here is an example with an autoskill+% of 70%.
The game will generate a random number between 1-100.
Any number from 1-70 means the autoskill procced. Any number from 71-100 means it did not proc.
Any number between 96-100 will always mean the autoskill did not proc, since Autoskill+% is capped at 95%.
This is just a theoretical way of thinking about Autoskill, in terms of mathematical formulae.
But what if you have 3 individual autoskills, such as the Genius + Dragon Mail + Epaulette/Ensis build?
This calculator will help you determine all the probabilities.
stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx
population size: 100
when an autoskill proc chance is determined, there are 100 possible RNG outcomes from 1-100
successes in population: X
X = your Autoskill +%, which is the number of successes in the population of 100
sample size: 3
3 autoskills are being rolled: Genius, Dragon Mail, & Ensis/Epaulette.
successes in sample: 1
to negate the damage, we only need 1 success from our sample of 3
.
Cumulative Probability: P(X > 1)
this is the odds that 1 OR MORE of the samples is a success. This is mainly what you should be looking at, but there is another important factor.
There are 3 autoskills being determined, so if 2 result in a success, you will heal the damage you would have taken.
And if all 3 are a success, you will double heal the damage you would have taken.
Successes in sample can be adjusted to 2 or 3, to show the chances of these occurring.
To simply everything so far;
P(X > 1) = the chance that 1 or more procs occur
P(X = 2) = the chance that 2 procs occur, resulting in a heal
P(X = 3) the chance that 3 procs occur, resulting in a double heal
P(X > 2) the chance of any heal occurring, which can be found by adding P(X = 2) and P(X = 3) together
Here are some example gear setups. Read through each in order, as they explain important concepts.
Toy around with the calculator as you see fit, and find what works for you.
Most autoskill gears have a base "proc rate" built into them, which functions the same as autoskill+%. I don't know if these 3 gears have that, so any base proc rate isn't included in the maths below.
Each individual Autoskill proc is dictated by RNG. Here is an example with an autoskill+% of 70%.
The game will generate a random number between 1-100.
Any number from 1-70 means the autoskill procced. Any number from 71-100 means it did not proc.
Any number between 96-100 will always mean the autoskill did not proc, since Autoskill+% is capped at 95%.
This is just a theoretical way of thinking about Autoskill, in terms of mathematical formulae.
But what if you have 3 individual autoskills, such as the Genius + Dragon Mail + Epaulette/Ensis build?
This calculator will help you determine all the probabilities.
stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx
population size: 100
when an autoskill proc chance is determined, there are 100 possible RNG outcomes from 1-100
successes in population: X
X = your Autoskill +%, which is the number of successes in the population of 100
sample size: 3
3 autoskills are being rolled: Genius, Dragon Mail, & Ensis/Epaulette.
successes in sample: 1
to negate the damage, we only need 1 success from our sample of 3
.
Cumulative Probability: P(X > 1)
this is the odds that 1 OR MORE of the samples is a success. This is mainly what you should be looking at, but there is another important factor.
There are 3 autoskills being determined, so if 2 result in a success, you will heal the damage you would have taken.
And if all 3 are a success, you will double heal the damage you would have taken.
Successes in sample can be adjusted to 2 or 3, to show the chances of these occurring.
To simply everything so far;
P(X > 1) = the chance that 1 or more procs occur
P(X = 2) = the chance that 2 procs occur, resulting in a heal
P(X = 3) the chance that 3 procs occur, resulting in a double heal
P(X > 2) the chance of any heal occurring, which can be found by adding P(X = 2) and P(X = 3) together
Here are some example gear setups. Read through each in order, as they explain important concepts.
{1) The triple Autoskill null build with all ◇Miasma xtals, but otherwise, as much Autoskill+% as possible}
Genius
Dragon Mail (up3)☆Auto5
Ensis☆Auto4
Accessory☆Auto3
Aconitum☆Auto2
Halios, Cordal, Sauro III, Sauro II, Adventurer
6 purple lines, 100 points in Red/Blue
Autoskill +48%
P(X > 1) = 86.3% null
P(X = 2) = 36.2% heal
P(X = 3) = 10.7% double heal
Let's say that you wanted a higher chance.
So you replaced 1 ◇Miasma with a ◇Frederico, for Autoskill +55%. Just change the successes in population to 55.
P(X > 1) = 91.2% null
P(X = 2) = 57.5% heal
P(X = 3) = 16.2% double heal
What if you replaced 2, for Autoskill +63%?
P(X > 1) = 95.2% null
P(X = 2) = 44.6% heal
P(X = 3) = 24.5% double heal1) The triple Autoskill null build with all ◇Miasma xtals, but otherwise, as much Autoskill+% as possible
Genius
Dragon Mail (up3)☆Auto5
Ensis☆Auto4
Accessory☆Auto3
Aconitum☆Auto2
Halios, Cordal, Sauro III, Sauro II, Adventurer
6 purple lines, 100 points in Red/Blue
Autoskill +48%
P(X > 1) = 86.3% null
P(X = 2) = 36.2% heal
P(X = 3) = 10.7% double heal
Let's say that you wanted a higher chance.
So you replaced 1 ◇Miasma with a ◇Frederico, for Autoskill +55%. Just change the successes in population to 55.
P(X > 1) = 91.2% null
P(X = 2) = 57.5% heal
P(X = 3) = 16.2% double heal
What if you replaced 2, for Autoskill +63%?
P(X > 1) = 95.2% null
P(X = 2) = 44.6% heal
P(X = 3) = 24.5% double heal1) The triple Autoskill null build with all ◇Miasma xtals, but otherwise, as much Autoskill+% as possible
{2) Alchemist Elunes null set in her youtube video /watch?v=rluVPAsT2wQ}
(bumping the Dragon Mail to up3, since it's being released in 1-2 weeks
Genius◇Frederico◇Frederico
Dragon Mail (up3)◇Bodyguard Cordal☆Auto2
Ensis◇Rudolf☆Auto4
Accessory☆Auto5
Spec◇Jahoel◇Jahoel☆Auto2
Halios, Sauro III, Cordal, Sauro II
6 purple lines, 100 points in Red/Blue
Autoskill +74%
P(X > 1) = 98.4%
P(X = 2) = 43.4%
P(X = 3) = 40.0%
Elune will only be hit by 1.6% of attacks, and she will heal from 83.4% of attacks.
This is best demonstrated by another of her videos, /watch?v=7Xq6N25xIjI
Occasionally, a Nejua will land a hit, but the next hit has a 1.6% to hit, & 14.8% chance to null. Anything else will heal her back to MaxHP.
The Nejuas need to consecutively succeed RNG rolls of <16.4 to NOT heal her, and within those successes, get <1.6 FOUR times to deal lethal damage.
It's safe to say that the Nejua cannot theoretically kill her, so no more Autoskill+% is needed.
(bumping the Dragon Mail to up3, since it's being released in 1-2 weeks
Genius◇Frederico◇Frederico
Dragon Mail (up3)◇Bodyguard Cordal☆Auto2
Ensis◇Rudolf☆Auto4
Accessory☆Auto5
Spec◇Jahoel◇Jahoel☆Auto2
Halios, Sauro III, Cordal, Sauro II
6 purple lines, 100 points in Red/Blue
Autoskill +74%
P(X > 1) = 98.4%
P(X = 2) = 43.4%
P(X = 3) = 40.0%
Elune will only be hit by 1.6% of attacks, and she will heal from 83.4% of attacks.
This is best demonstrated by another of her videos, /watch?v=7Xq6N25xIjI
Occasionally, a Nejua will land a hit, but the next hit has a 1.6% to hit, & 14.8% chance to null. Anything else will heal her back to MaxHP.
The Nejuas need to consecutively succeed RNG rolls of <16.4 to NOT heal her, and within those successes, get <1.6 FOUR times to deal lethal damage.
It's safe to say that the Nejua cannot theoretically kill her, so no more Autoskill+% is needed.
{3) The "Mums Spaghetti" build}
Autoskill+ 95%
P(X > 1) = 99.993%
P(X > 2) = 99.4%
0.007% chance to take damage from an attack. 99.4% chance to heal or double heal.
Don't do this. This is stupid.
If you are theoretically unkillable with around Autoskill +75%, then having 95% will not give you any extra benefit.
Furthermore, you can't null damage if that damage would be fatal.
(this might only apply if the damage is over your MaxHP. Still not sure about that)
Autoskill+ 95%
P(X > 1) = 99.993%
P(X > 2) = 99.4%
0.007% chance to take damage from an attack. 99.4% chance to heal or double heal.
Don't do this. This is stupid.
If you are theoretically unkillable with around Autoskill +75%, then having 95% will not give you any extra benefit.
Furthermore, you can't null damage if that damage would be fatal.
(this might only apply if the damage is over your MaxHP. Still not sure about that)
Toy around with the calculator as you see fit, and find what works for you.
{.}
AYYYYYYYY
this is ya boi, POPdrop.
that's my name cause I pop em and I drop em.
if u are reading this entry, then ur in the right place, cause these contents will be my top secret knowledge
when i was hiking in the mountains of mithurna, i discovered a 50,000 year old script in a 1,000 year old bottle, that originally belonged to an ancient king of a unknown civilization that existed 10,000 years ago. this script talked of an ancient legend that the king had written in his youth. That legend was the 5th damage ailment. poison, burn, bleed, cursed rain. according to the king's words, there was another ailment that remained lost for 500 years. ya boi, POPdrop embarked on this journey to rediscover this king's civilization that went extinct 100,000 years ago.
after many travels, I finally discovered his kingdom, and found the legend that he once spoke of. and it said:
The 5th damage ailment: Reflect+%
Damage Null set + Reflect+%
Don't Super-Refine your body/add
Don't use any Resists
The higher damage you take, the higher the reflected damage gets
Since you null the damage, you don't actually take the damage
But you still reflect the full damage you would have taken
Pet Skill: Life Charge has a hidden MagicR•MeleeR -990%
Ensis Shield has Reflect +15%
There's also Reflect star abilities
with these secret knowledges, ya boi is gonna be the greatest one out there.
***wripped pages***
***damaged pages covered in blood***
this is ya boi again. ya boi isn't doing too well. i finally understand why the king's civilization has collapsed. it was because they tried this terrible idea of null & Reflect+%, and they all died. I too, built a set of gears for this purpose and, well, it looks like ya boi won't be poppin and droppin them any longer. If you are reading this last diary entry of mine, please, don't make the same mistake I did.
POPdrop
AYYYYYYYY
this is ya boi, POPdrop.
that's my name cause I pop em and I drop em.
if u are reading this entry, then ur in the right place, cause these contents will be my top secret knowledge
when i was hiking in the mountains of mithurna, i discovered a 50,000 year old script in a 1,000 year old bottle, that originally belonged to an ancient king of a unknown civilization that existed 10,000 years ago. this script talked of an ancient legend that the king had written in his youth. That legend was the 5th damage ailment. poison, burn, bleed, cursed rain. according to the king's words, there was another ailment that remained lost for 500 years. ya boi, POPdrop embarked on this journey to rediscover this king's civilization that went extinct 100,000 years ago.
after many travels, I finally discovered his kingdom, and found the legend that he once spoke of. and it said:
The 5th damage ailment: Reflect+%
Damage Null set + Reflect+%
Don't Super-Refine your body/add
Don't use any Resists
The higher damage you take, the higher the reflected damage gets
Since you null the damage, you don't actually take the damage
But you still reflect the full damage you would have taken
Pet Skill: Life Charge has a hidden MagicR•MeleeR -990%
Ensis Shield has Reflect +15%
There's also Reflect star abilities
with these secret knowledges, ya boi is gonna be the greatest one out there.
***wripped pages***
***damaged pages covered in blood***
this is ya boi again. ya boi isn't doing too well. i finally understand why the king's civilization has collapsed. it was because they tried this terrible idea of null & Reflect+%, and they all died. I too, built a set of gears for this purpose and, well, it looks like ya boi won't be poppin and droppin them any longer. If you are reading this last diary entry of mine, please, don't make the same mistake I did.
POPdrop